MegaMaester

Problem Solving & Decision Making · Module 4

Sharper Judgment

The first three modules covered understanding problems, making decisions, and tackling complex challenges. This module sharpens the judgment behind hard, real-world decisions — the ones made under pressure, with others, and with consequences that ripple outward.

You will learn to decide well under pressure, to think in second and third order, to use pre-mortems and checklists, to reason strategically when others are deciding too, to match speed to reversibility, to bring ethics into decisions, and to keep sharpening your judgment for life.

Lessons
7 lessons
Estimated time
~6-8 hours
Assessment
Module quiz included

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Lessons

Lesson 1 · 16 min

Decision-Making Under Pressure

Lesson 2 · 16 min

Second-Order Thinking

Lesson 3 · 16 min

Pre-Mortems and Checklists

Lesson 4 · 16 min

Game Theory and Strategic Choices

Lesson 5 · 16 min

Reversible and Irreversible Decisions

Lesson 6 · 16 min

Ethical Decision-Making

Lesson 7 · 16 min

Sharpening Your Judgment for Life

Check your understanding

Finish the lessons, then test yourself. Your best score is saved on this device. You can also open this quiz on its own page.

Sharper Judgment — Module Assessment

14 questions · pass mark 75%

  1. 1.According to Gary Klein's recognition-primed decision model, how do experienced professionals typically decide under pressure?
  2. 2.Klein and Kahneman's 2009 paper concluded that expert intuition can be trusted mainly when which conditions hold?
  3. 3.What best captures the discipline of second-order thinking?
  4. 4.In Garrett Hardin's 1968 "Tragedy of the Commons," why does a shared pasture get destroyed?
  5. 5.What is the defining move of a pre-mortem?
  6. 6.According to the 2009 New England Journal of Medicine study, introducing the WHO Surgical Safety Checklist across eight hospitals was associated with which change?
  7. 7.In a one-shot prisoner's dilemma, why do both players tend to defect?
  8. 8.Which strategy won Robert Axelrod's repeated prisoner's dilemma tournament, and what characterised it?
  9. 9.What best defines a "one-way door" decision?
  10. 10.In his 2015 shareholder letter, Bezos warned that applying a slow, deliberate (Type 1) process to reversible (Type 2) decisions leads to what?
  11. 11.According to the lesson, what is the first and most important skill in ethical decision-making?
  12. 12.The "publicity" or front-page test primarily works by:
  13. 13.A manager makes a carefully reasoned hiring decision that fails when the new hire leaves for an unforeseeable family reason. Judging the decision purely by this outcome is an example of:
  14. 14.What is the main reason a decision journal improves judgment over time?
Answer every question to submit.