The capstone
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Take a real article apart
Ten steps, a verdict per claim, and a conclusion proportionate to the evidence.
Statistics for Everyday Life · Lesson 7
Capstone: Statistics in the Wild
beginner⏱ 25 min · 7 cards
Work through it
Ten-Step Walkthrough
The capstone analysis, one step at a time.
Judge the reporting and the underlying research separately. Usually the study is reasonable and the headline is not.
One stage at a time, building toward a balanced conclusion.
Worked fragment
"Breakfast eaters are 30% less likely to be obese"
Relative figure, observational study, self-reported breakfast, press release instead of paper, no interval quoted, causal language in the headline.
With a 20% baseline that is roughly 14% versus 20% — a 6 point difference. Verdict: overstated, not false.
Key term
The requirement
What makes a capstone conclusion good?
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Balance
Most articles are a mixture. A conclusion of "it was all nonsense" usually means the reading stopped being careful.
Nuance
The useful sentence
Maester Note
Name the claim you were most inclined to accept before analysing it. That one is the reason to do this exercise.
Quick check
Why can a random sample of 1,000 represent millions?
You did it
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