Calibrate it
How confident, exactly?
Most useful positions sit between certain and no idea.
Critical Thinking · Lesson 7
Decision Making Under Uncertainty
intermediate⏱ 16 min · 8 cards
The big idea
🎲
Choosing without certainty
Risk has known odds; uncertainty does not. Either way, structure beats a gut feeling.
The toolkit
What to weigh
Tap each idea.
Run the numbers
Decision Lab
Option A: a guaranteed +40.
Option B: a 50% chance of +100, otherwise −20.
Expected value A
+40
Expected value B
+40
The options are a tie on expected value — now personal risk tolerance decides.
Expected value weighs each outcome by its probability — a vivid best case is not the whole story.
Slide the odds and watch expected value decide between a sure thing and a gamble.
Nuance
Judge the process
Maester Note
A good decision can still have a bad outcome. Judge the reasoning, not just the result.
Recap
Key takeaways
- ✓Risk has known odds; uncertainty does not — and they call for different strategies.
- ✓Expected outcomes weigh results by their probability.
- ✓Every choice carries an opportunity cost; decision fatigue erodes judgment.
- ✓Bayesian thinking updates belief by degrees as evidence arrives.
- ✓The Decision Framework: Define, List, Gather, Weigh, Decide-and-review.
- ✓Judge decisions by process, not only by outcome.
Quick check
What best describes critical thinking?
You did it
Nice work
Mark this lesson complete to track your progress.