The big idea
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Knowing about a bias does not remove it
They operate before the conclusion reaches consciousness — so the countermeasure has to be structural.
Problem Solving & Decision Making · Lesson 3
Biases in Decision Making
beginner⏱ 18 min · 7 cards
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Name the Countermeasure
“Everyone writes their estimate before hearing anyone else\u2019s.”
Which of these will actually counter the bias?
Awareness is close to useless — biases operate before the conclusion reaches consciousness.
Choose the structural fix over the awareness-based one.
Key term
The estimate that never learns
Why do experienced people still underestimate?
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The inside view
Your plan is vivid and each step looks short. What you cannot see is the distribution of things that went wrong on other projects. Use what comparable efforts actually took — your plan is not evidence.
Structural countermeasures
Change the process
Tap each.
Nuance
Careful
Common misconception
Naming a bias is not a refutation. "That’s just confirmation bias" is usually a rhetorical move — someone can hold a position for biased reasons and still be right.
Quick check
What is 'resulting'?
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